Mule Deer Surveys Show Favorable Fawn Recruitment

HELENA – While an early spring across the state made the work of FWP wildlife staff more challenging, it also may have helped mule deer populations -- including fawn recruitment. That was the case when biologists were conducting their spring mule deer surveys.

“Overall, the mule deer population is on the upswing, and we are cautiously optimistic,” said Brian Wakeling, FWP’s game management bureau chief. “Just because it is trending upwards, though, doesn’t mean that the trend will necessarily continue. In most places, we are still below long-term averages, and our objective remains to increase mule deer numbers.”

Mule deer surveys occur post-hunting season, usually in December and January, and again in the spring to estimate winter survival. They are just one way FWP responds to the concerns of hunters about herd health.

“When we have an open winter, mule deer herds are not restricted to smaller areas of winter range and can begin exploring wider ranges earlier in the spring,” said Wakeling said. “Because they are not concentrated as much, they can be more difficult to find the numbers we are used to when classifying and enumerating individuals.”

Spring surveys have two primary goals: to count the total number of deer in a trend area to compare with long-term averages, and to track fawn-to-adult ratios to determine winter fawn survival. Fawns that survive their first winter are considered recruited into the population. Biologists record the number of fawns per 100 adults to generate recruitment ratios. These ratios can help inform FWP on overall winter survival, how the population is faring as it enters the summer season, and what the potential for growth might be in the upcoming year. According to Wakeling, the spring survey showed favorable fawn recruitment overall, but there are still places in the state where recruitment and populations have not yet responded positively. “The recent rains and favorable range conditions increased nutrition and body condition for mule deer this year and will play an important role in ensuring good overwinter survival next year, regardless of winter severity,” Wakeling said.

In north-central and south-central Montana, biologists reported above-average fawn recruitment but still lower-than-average population trends. “Several years of poor conditions got us to this point, and it will take a few consecutive good years to see significant recovery,” said Cory Loecker, Region 4 wildlife manager. “But we couldn’t ask for better weather than what we’ve gotten so far this year.”

In northeastern and southeastern Montana, surveys generally indicated strong recruitment and an increase in populations. “The past few years we have received favorable moisture during key periods, which improved habitat and forage across southeastern Montana and has helped out the mule deer as they have been recovering from multiple years of severe drought,” said Brett Dorak, Region 7 wildlife manager.

Region 6

Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks biologists completed 2026 spring aerial surveys of deer population trends across Region 6 in northeastern Montana. The surveys indicate general increases in most districts.

Every year, Region 6 wildlife biologists conduct aerial surveys across 11 deer trend areas across the region to assess mule deer population trends in total observations and fawn recruitment ratios. Mule deer surveys occur post hunting season, usually in December and January, and again in the spring in March and April to estimate winter survival. The following results focus on the spring survey. Note that the trend areas surveyed are meant to be a sample of the total land area, and deer populations may vary across the region and in individual hunting districts.

An important factor of spring surveys is fawn to adult ratios that indicate fawn recruitment. Fawns that have survived their first winter, which is typically the hardest period in the annual cycle, are considered recruited into the population. These ratios can help inform FWP on overall winter survival, how the population is faring as it enters the summer season, and what the potential for growth might be in the upcoming year.

Northeast Montana

The 2026 winter across northeast Montana was fairly mild, but some areas in the extreme northeast corner had more difficult conditions with heavy snow. However, an early warming event in January melted most of the existing snow and the area experienced an open and mild winter from mid-January to spring, which is often the most challenging months for big game animals.

Mule deer densities in all 11 deer trend areas this spring indicated an increase of 32 percent from 2025 and overall were slightly above the long-term average. Region- wide fawn to adult ratios show a slight increase from 2025 and are 21 percent above the long-term average, indicating growing populations. Below is a breakdown of the areas by geographic region going west to east in northeast Montana.

Glasgow area summary

Spring 2026 mule deer surveys in the Glasgow area indicated improved numbers in all three trend areas in hunting districts HD 630, western 650, and eastern 670, with the trend areas in 630 and western 650 being above the longterm average. The 670 Bitter Creek trend area showed substantially increased numbers from last year but was still 34 percent below the long-term average.

The fawn to adult ratios in all three trend areas remained above long-term averages but had little change from the 2025 surveys. Plentywood area summary

The Plentywood area includes two trend areas, one in HD 640 and another in the eastern end of HD 650. The trend numbers in HD 640 remain 32 percent above longterm average but decreased from the 2025 spring survey. In the eastern portion of HD 650, total deer numbers increased over 30 percent from 2025 and are right at the longterm average.

Fawn to adult ratios were near long-term averages.

Conclusion

These surveys indicate a steady recovery of mule deer populations across much of Region 6 in northeast Montana, following the recent low numbers observed in 2024.

“Mule deer populations historically have followed a cyclic pattern from high to low populations over a 10year period,” says Region 6 wildlife manager Scott Thompson. “Biologists use these survey data, combined with harvest estimates and other factors such as weather, Chronic Wasting Disease prevalence, and landowner tolerance to recommend mule deer hunting season adjustments.”

“If mother nature provides ample moisture in 2026, we should expect to see mule deer numbers continue to increase across northeast Montana,” adds Thompson.