Dry Outlook Persists For Missouri River
Warm February temperatures triggered early snowmelt and runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, but the overall 2026 runoff forecast remains well below average.
February runoff was 1.3 million acre-feet, 113 percent of average. Despite this above average runoff in the Garrison, Oahe, and Gavins Point reaches, the full-year runoff forecast above Sioux City, Iowa is 20.6 MAF, 80 percent of average.
“Runoff into the reservoir system was slightly above average for the month of February, but conditions across most of the basin remain dry,” said John Remus, chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. “The much warmer-than-normal temperatures led to an early melt of the lower-than-average plains snow. In addition, mountain snowpack, though it improved in February, is still below average and soil moisture remains low due to ongoing drought.”
Water stored in the Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System is currently 49.3 MAF, which is 6.8 MAF below the base of the flood control zone.
“While lower reservoir storage helps to decrease the chances of systemic flooding, continued water conservation measures will be required,” said Remus.
Releases from Gavins Point Dam are currently 12,000 cubic-feet-per-second and will remain low through mid-March to continue conserving water in the System following the Missouri River Mainstem System Master Manual’s criteria.
“While the target winter release from Gavins Point Dam is 12,000 cfs, releases were set at 14,000 cfs from mid-January through the first week of February due to extremely cold temperatures and ice conditions on the Missouri River below Gavins Point,” said Remus.
USACE continues to monitor basin and river conditions, including plains and mountain snow accumulation, and will adjust System regulation based on the most up-to-date information.
